Seasonal Trends in Commodities

According to Frank Holmes, CEO of  U.S. Global Investors, commodities have the following seasonal cycles:

Every year has a seasonal cycle that affects supply and demand of commodities. We compare gold to copper to silver to platinum and to oil, and can see defined patterns. For more than 150 years, the patterns have a 70% accuracy of forecasting economic activity. Copper is usually best bought in November and sold in March. It fell off dramatically between March and November for many, many years until China's economic engine fired up and started altering that pattern 15 years ago. It still falls off, but not nearly so dramatically now.

Usually gold bottoms in August and charges back in September as part of a seasonal pattern that kicks off with religious observances and holidays in countries where it's very common to give gold as a gift and a representation of love—from Ramadan through the Diwali season of lights in India through Christmas and the Chinese New Year. 

TFSA trumps RRSP, report says

From the Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rrsp/tfsa-trumps-rrsp-report-says/article1446307/

Small companies offer up most dividend growth

The title says it all: Small companies offer up most dividend growth

The article discusses compound annual growth rate across the last 10 years for all the stocks traded in Toronto.

The top 5 dividend growth companies in order of 10-year compound annual growth rate of dividends per share are as follows:

Shaw Communications, Inc.	SJR.B-T	45
Canadian Oil Sands Trust	COS.UN-T	40
BMTC Group Inc.	GBT.A-T	30.2
Reitmans Canada Ltd.	RET.A-T	27.2
EnCana Corp.	ECA-T	25.7

Bonds Point To Bull Market In Stocks

Bonds Point To Bull Market In Stocks
Garman sees a banner year ahead for stocks: a near 42% gain for the small companies that make up the Russell 2000 index and a 22% rally for the larger ones in the Standard and Poor’s 500.

52-Week High Stocks

Another strategy for finding stocks to evaluate is to look at the 52-week high list.

But, hold on. Doesn’t that violate the rule against buying high? First, that rule only applies to stocks that have been artificially bid up by some type of market over-reach.

You can find those on the 52-week high list, but they are easy to spot and eliminate (a stock whose price has jumped 30% in one day).

You are looking for stocks that have shown steady growth over a long period to earn their way on to the list.

When you identify these stocks, begin your evaluation. The market has done much of your work by rewarding the company with an escalating stock price, but don’t stop there.

http://stocks.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/Winners042805.htm

Timing Model for High-Yield Bonds

This timing model is outlined in the book "Opportunity Investing" by Gerald Appel.
He calls this strategy "1.25/0.50".

This timing model presumes that if high-yield bonds have been in a downtrend, and then rise in price by 1.25% from a low price level, the downtrend has come to an end (a buy signal).

The model also presumes that if high-yield bond funds have been advancing in prices, a decline of 0.50% in the prices of such funds from their most recent high level indicates that there are good chances of ongoing decline (a sell signal).

What to do with $10000 in TFSA

What to do with $10000 in a tax free savings account with a medium term time horizon and basically no risk?
-buy an eight year $5000 Province of Ontario strip bond for $3400 with a yield of 4%.
- buy the TSX 60 index XIU with the remaining $1600. You now have basically risk free market exposure.
- keep $2500 in the Claymore T-Bill account CMR to capture rising interest rates
- keep $2500 in XRB the real return bond ETF to capture rising inflation

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/a-stash-for-cash-or-investment-vehicle/article1396665/